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ZB

ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong beat: EPS $1.63 vs S&P Global Primary EPS consensus ~$1.31; revenue ~$0.839B vs ~$0.811B; NIM expanded for the sixth straight quarter to 3.17% and adjusted PPNR rose 18% sequentially, 14% YoY . S&P Global estimates marked with asterisks; see Estimates Context.
  • Credit resilient: negative $1m provision, NCOs 7 bps, NPAs steady at 0.51%; CRE classifieds fell $196m QoQ with limited loss content given strong LTVs and guarantor support .
  • Balance sheet: Average loans +3.7% YoY (+5.6% LQ annualized); deposits broadly stable YoY; CET1 improved to 11.0% (+40 bps YoY); efficiency ratio improved to 62.2% .
  • Outlook raised in tone: management now models “moderately increasing” NII and customer fees and “slightly increasing” loan balances into 2Q26 vs 2Q25; expects continued positive operating leverage (100–200 bps indicated on the call) .
  • Potential catalysts: further NIM expansion from fixed-asset repricing, capital markets momentum, declining CRE classifieds; watch deposit competition and macro/tariff path which management sees as less acute than in 1Q .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • NIM and revenue momentum: NIM rose to 3.17% (+7 bps QoQ, +19 bps YoY); NII +9% YoY; adjusted PPNR +18% QoQ/+14% YoY as revenue outpaced expense .
    • Credit stable with reserve discipline: provision was negative $1m; NCOs 0.07%; ACL 1.20% of loans with 224% coverage of nonaccruals; CRE classifieds declined $196m QoQ .
    • Constructive tone and product traction: CEO cited being “incrementally more optimistic” for 2H; new “Gold” consumer account showed strong early adoption ahead of broader rollout .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Deposit pressure at quarter-end: total deposits fell $1.9B QoQ on seasonal outflows; brokered deposits decreased $837m while FHLB advances rose $2.6B to fund growth .
    • Classified loans elevated YoY: 4.43% of loans vs 2.16% a year ago (though down QoQ), driven by multifamily and industrial CRE vintages with slower lease-ups and higher rates .
    • Expenses up YoY: noninterest expense +4% YoY (adjusted +3%) on higher incentive accruals and legal/other items; management still expects positive operating leverage but flagged tech/marketing pressure ahead .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenue (GAAP, $mm)776 795 838
Net Interest Income ($mm)597 624 648
Noninterest Income ($mm)179 171 190
Customer-related Noninterest Income ($mm)153 158 164
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.28 $1.13 $1.63
Net Interest Margin2.98% 3.10% 3.17%
Efficiency Ratio (Adj.)64.5% 66.6% 62.2%

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global; “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS):

MetricConsensusActual
Primary EPS (Q2 2025)$1.31*$1.58*
Revenue (Q2 2025, $mm)811.2*839.0*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).

KPIs and Capital

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Loans HFI, net ($mm)57,719 59,244 60,143
Total Deposits ($mm)73,770 75,692 73,800
Annualized NCOs / Avg Loans0.10% 0.11% 0.07%
NPAs / Loans + OREO0.45% 0.51% 0.51%
Provision for Credit Losses ($mm)5 18 (1)
CET1 Ratio (est.)10.6% 10.8% 11.0%
Cost of Deposits (avg)2.11% 1.76% 1.68%
Yield on Loans (avg)6.11% 5.84% 5.86%

Notable items and non-GAAP

  • Q2 included a $9m SBIC-related unrealized gain tied to an IPO ($0.05 per share net of fee accrual) .
  • Adjusted PPNR $316m vs $267m in Q1 and $278m in Q2’24; efficiency ratio 62.2% (adj.) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriod FramingPrevious Guidance (from Q1’25)Current Guidance (Q2’25)Change
Loan Balances (period-end)1Q26 vs 1Q25 → 2Q26 vs 2Q25Stable to slightly increasing Slightly increasing Maintained/slightly clearer upward bias
Net Interest Income1Q26 vs 1Q25 → 2Q26 vs 2Q25Slightly to moderately increasing Moderately increasing Raised within range
Customer-related Noninterest Income1Q26 vs 1Q25 → 2Q26 vs 2Q25Slightly increasing Moderately increasing Raised
Adjusted Noninterest Expense1Q26 vs 1Q25 → 2Q26 vs 2Q25Slightly to moderately increasing Moderately increasing; still positive operating leverage expected Tilted higher with operating leverage reaffirmed

Dividend/Capital

  • Quarterly common dividend maintained at $0.43 (declared May 2, 2025) .
  • Buybacks remain conservative until further AOCI improvement; CET1 11.0% with glide path to peer-like ex‑AOCI levels discussed .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
NIM trajectoryNIM expanding on deposit cost repricing; path back to mid‑3% discussed as plausible with curve normalization .Sixth straight NIM increase to 3.17%; fixed-asset repricing adds 2–3 bps sequentially; NII growth possible even with rate cuts .Improving, momentum intact
Deposits/pricingCost of deposits falling; seasonal outflows in Q1; spot deposit rate ~1.70% at Mar-end .Deposit costs -8 bps QoQ to 1.68%; period-end deposits down seasonally; deposit competition remains high but funding cost focus emphasized .Costs easing; balances volatile
CRE creditClassifieds elevated on multifamily/industrial/office; loss content limited by low LTVs .CRE classifieds -$196m QoQ; low nonaccruals/charge-offs continue; ACL for CRE substantial vs risk .Stabilizing/improving
Capital/AOCICET1 10.9%; AOCI improvement to aid TBV; cautious on buybacks .CET1 11.0%; TBV up; continue organic capital build; buybacks remain conservative .Strengthening
Capital Markets feesRecord 4Q; building capabilities; expect growth .Fees a key driver of +7% YoY customer fees; expanding into oil & gas derivatives; aim to double biz over 4–5 years .Growing
Technology/AIModernized core; continuous improvement; AI to reduce false positives and processing costs .“Gold” account rollout; AI use cases in QA/AML/wires; selected nCino for origination modernization .Advancing
Tariffs/macroHeightened uncertainty in Q1; tempered loan growth outlook .CEO: tariff risks feel less acute; more optimistic on 2H growth .Improving tone
Stablecoins/tokenized depositsNot prominent previously.Platform ready for real-time settlement; management sees tokenized deposits as more compelling than stablecoins for credit creation .Strategic optioning

Management Commentary

  • “We’re very pleased with the quarter’s strong financial results… NIM…3.17%… customer-related noninterest income rose 7%.” – Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
  • “We are incrementally more sanguine about potential growth in our outlook.” – CEO .
  • “Our outlook for NII… is moderately increasing… supported by earning asset remix, loan and deposit growth, and fixed-rate asset repricing.” – Ryan Richards, CFO .
  • “Positive operating leverage… sized… in the 100 to 200 basis points [range].” – CFO .
  • “Gold account… strong uptake… rollout company-wide mid‑September.” – CEO .
  • “Even with Fed cutting rates we could still show growth in NII one year hence.” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Deposits and pricing: Highly competitive; focus on total funding cost; deposit costs may have limited further room without rate cuts; asset-side repricing is greater opportunity .
  • NIM path: Still supported by fixed-asset repricing, asset mix, diminishing legacy hedge headwinds; mid-3% remains a reasonable longer-term aspiration with constructive curve .
  • CRE and credit: Classifieds declined QoQ with improving leasing and payoffs; loss content limited given low LTVs/guarantors; expect continued decline .
  • Operating leverage and investments: Targeting 100–200 bps; adding revenue producers and marketing; AI-enabled efficiency initiatives in AML/wires/credit processes .
  • Capital/Buybacks: CET1 11.0%; TBV rising; remain conservative on repurchases until AOCI further improves and regulatory clarity increases .
  • New fee vectors: Launching oil & gas derivatives; capital markets pipeline healthy (loan syndications, IRRM, FX, RE capital markets, M&A advisory) .

Estimates Context

  • Zions beat Wall Street (S&P Global) on both EPS and revenue: Primary EPS $1.58 vs $1.31 consensus; revenue ~$$839m vs ~$811m consensus. Note: S&P’s Primary EPS differs from GAAP diluted EPS ($1.63 GAAP) due to methodology/adjustments. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust:

  • EPS/Revenue revisions likely move higher on sustained NIM expansion, negative provision, and fee momentum, partly offset by deposit competition and planned expense investments .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating momentum: Sixth consecutive NIM expansion, double-digit YoY NII growth, and improving efficiency underpin near-term EPS resilience .
  • Quality credit with CRE stabilization: Net charge-offs remain very low; CRE classifieds declining; ACL coverage solid—reducing tail risk narrative .
  • Positive estimate revision set-up: Clear EPS/Revenue beat vs S&P Global consensus and guidance language upgraded to “moderately increasing” NII/fees . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Capital and TBV leverage: CET1 at 11% and modeled AOCI burn-down support TBV compounding; buybacks a potential later lever as AOCI improves .
  • Fee growth vectors: Capital markets and new oil & gas derivatives capability provide diversified, higher multiple revenue streams .
  • Watchlist risks: Deposit competition and macro path (rates/tariffs) could temper NIM gains; management currently more optimistic vs 1Q .
  • Execution priorities: Broader Gold account rollout, nCino-driven origination modernization, and targeted hiring of producers should sustain growth/fee momentum .

Footnote: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).