ZB
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Strong beat: EPS $1.63 vs S&P Global Primary EPS consensus ~$1.31; revenue ~$0.839B vs ~$0.811B; NIM expanded for the sixth straight quarter to 3.17% and adjusted PPNR rose 18% sequentially, 14% YoY . S&P Global estimates marked with asterisks; see Estimates Context.
- Credit resilient: negative $1m provision, NCOs 7 bps, NPAs steady at 0.51%; CRE classifieds fell $196m QoQ with limited loss content given strong LTVs and guarantor support .
- Balance sheet: Average loans +3.7% YoY (+5.6% LQ annualized); deposits broadly stable YoY; CET1 improved to 11.0% (+40 bps YoY); efficiency ratio improved to 62.2% .
- Outlook raised in tone: management now models “moderately increasing” NII and customer fees and “slightly increasing” loan balances into 2Q26 vs 2Q25; expects continued positive operating leverage (100–200 bps indicated on the call) .
- Potential catalysts: further NIM expansion from fixed-asset repricing, capital markets momentum, declining CRE classifieds; watch deposit competition and macro/tariff path which management sees as less acute than in 1Q .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- NIM and revenue momentum: NIM rose to 3.17% (+7 bps QoQ, +19 bps YoY); NII +9% YoY; adjusted PPNR +18% QoQ/+14% YoY as revenue outpaced expense .
- Credit stable with reserve discipline: provision was negative $1m; NCOs 0.07%; ACL 1.20% of loans with 224% coverage of nonaccruals; CRE classifieds declined $196m QoQ .
- Constructive tone and product traction: CEO cited being “incrementally more optimistic” for 2H; new “Gold” consumer account showed strong early adoption ahead of broader rollout .
-
What Went Wrong
- Deposit pressure at quarter-end: total deposits fell $1.9B QoQ on seasonal outflows; brokered deposits decreased $837m while FHLB advances rose $2.6B to fund growth .
- Classified loans elevated YoY: 4.43% of loans vs 2.16% a year ago (though down QoQ), driven by multifamily and industrial CRE vintages with slower lease-ups and higher rates .
- Expenses up YoY: noninterest expense +4% YoY (adjusted +3%) on higher incentive accruals and legal/other items; management still expects positive operating leverage but flagged tech/marketing pressure ahead .
Financial Results
Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global; “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS):
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).
KPIs and Capital
Notable items and non-GAAP
- Q2 included a
$9m SBIC-related unrealized gain tied to an IPO ($0.05 per share net of fee accrual) . - Adjusted PPNR $316m vs $267m in Q1 and $278m in Q2’24; efficiency ratio 62.2% (adj.) .
Guidance Changes
Dividend/Capital
- Quarterly common dividend maintained at $0.43 (declared May 2, 2025) .
- Buybacks remain conservative until further AOCI improvement; CET1 11.0% with glide path to peer-like ex‑AOCI levels discussed .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’re very pleased with the quarter’s strong financial results… NIM…3.17%… customer-related noninterest income rose 7%.” – Harris H. Simmons, CEO .
- “We are incrementally more sanguine about potential growth in our outlook.” – CEO .
- “Our outlook for NII… is moderately increasing… supported by earning asset remix, loan and deposit growth, and fixed-rate asset repricing.” – Ryan Richards, CFO .
- “Positive operating leverage… sized… in the 100 to 200 basis points [range].” – CFO .
- “Gold account… strong uptake… rollout company-wide mid‑September.” – CEO .
- “Even with Fed cutting rates we could still show growth in NII one year hence.” – CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Deposits and pricing: Highly competitive; focus on total funding cost; deposit costs may have limited further room without rate cuts; asset-side repricing is greater opportunity .
- NIM path: Still supported by fixed-asset repricing, asset mix, diminishing legacy hedge headwinds; mid-3% remains a reasonable longer-term aspiration with constructive curve .
- CRE and credit: Classifieds declined QoQ with improving leasing and payoffs; loss content limited given low LTVs/guarantors; expect continued decline .
- Operating leverage and investments: Targeting 100–200 bps; adding revenue producers and marketing; AI-enabled efficiency initiatives in AML/wires/credit processes .
- Capital/Buybacks: CET1 11.0%; TBV rising; remain conservative on repurchases until AOCI further improves and regulatory clarity increases .
- New fee vectors: Launching oil & gas derivatives; capital markets pipeline healthy (loan syndications, IRRM, FX, RE capital markets, M&A advisory) .
Estimates Context
- Zions beat Wall Street (S&P Global) on both EPS and revenue: Primary EPS $1.58 vs $1.31 consensus; revenue ~$$839m vs ~$811m consensus. Note: S&P’s Primary EPS differs from GAAP diluted EPS ($1.63 GAAP) due to methodology/adjustments. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates may adjust:
- EPS/Revenue revisions likely move higher on sustained NIM expansion, negative provision, and fee momentum, partly offset by deposit competition and planned expense investments .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating momentum: Sixth consecutive NIM expansion, double-digit YoY NII growth, and improving efficiency underpin near-term EPS resilience .
- Quality credit with CRE stabilization: Net charge-offs remain very low; CRE classifieds declining; ACL coverage solid—reducing tail risk narrative .
- Positive estimate revision set-up: Clear EPS/Revenue beat vs S&P Global consensus and guidance language upgraded to “moderately increasing” NII/fees . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Capital and TBV leverage: CET1 at 11% and modeled AOCI burn-down support TBV compounding; buybacks a potential later lever as AOCI improves .
- Fee growth vectors: Capital markets and new oil & gas derivatives capability provide diversified, higher multiple revenue streams .
- Watchlist risks: Deposit competition and macro path (rates/tariffs) could temper NIM gains; management currently more optimistic vs 1Q .
- Execution priorities: Broader Gold account rollout, nCino-driven origination modernization, and targeted hiring of producers should sustain growth/fee momentum .
Footnote: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).